Nuclear proliferation in south asia coral bell school of asia pacific. Sep 14, 2006 chinas proliferation to north korea and iran, and its role in addressing the nuclear and missile situations in both nations hearing before the u. Assessing progress on nuclear nonproliferation and. Would the right policy, people and implementation could have made a difference in preventing the nuclearization of south asia. It begins with an overview of theoretical accounts for the phenomenon, and assesses their usefulness through historical and contemporary case. Deterrence instability and nuclear weapons in south asia. Nuclear proliferation in north east asia 23032017 the nuclear dimension of the crisis in the korean peninsula has been compounded since the end of the cold war, particularly since the north korean regime announced its withdrawal from the nuclear non proliferation treaty npt in january 2003. Not least among these challenges is the possibility that the pursuit of nuclear weapons or a nuclear option by. The world witnessed a major historical event in 1947 when subcontinent, which was governed as a one unit from khyber to burma since almost last one thousand years, partitioned by the ruling british empire resulting into two states namely india and pakistan.
Scientists reported that pakistan currently had a nuclear weapons stockpile of. The broad objective of a regional approach to non proliferation is to promote detente in a particular region and to extend to that region confidencebuilding measures. This forced pakistan to work seriously on its nuclear program with a fast pace. Nuclear relations in south asia unt digital library. Optimistic scholars argue that by threatening to raise the cost of war astronomically, nuclear weapons make armed conflict in south asia extremely unlikely. Southern asias nuclear powers council on foreign relations.
Nuclear doctrines in south asia 4 south asian strategic stability unit nuclear pessimists, however, has tended to neglect the critical role that nuclear doctrines of the emerging nuclear weapon states might play in either causing deterrence failure or ensuring its. The entry to the nuclear club was closed to all other countries after the nonproliferation treaty npt came into force in 1970. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india. As a region of burgeoning economic and political importance, south asia offers a crucial test of proliferations effects on. Nuclear weapons and arms control in south asia after the. She joined the arms control association in 2011 as. Nuclear power expansion and its safety and security risks in. But the north korean nuclear program the implied reason for bringing tac nukes back to east asia is far more complex than to be alleviated through nuclear coercion.
It has endorsed a united states proposal for a regional five power conference to. The implications of south asias nuclear tests for the nonproliferation and disarmament regimes a report of the unidir conference held on 78 september 1998, palais des nations, geneva united nations new york and geneva, 1999. Assessing progress on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. The history of indopakistani conflict competing arguments about south asian proliferation south asias nuclear past south asias nuclear present and future three points of agreement in may 1998, india and pakistan put to rest years of speculation about whether they possessed nuclear technology and openly tested their weapons. Security dilemmas arise when a states mechanisms for increasing its security negatively impact the security and threat perceptions of other states. Nuclear weapons and conflict in south asia stephen p. With the reciprocal testing of nuclear weapons, india and pakistan emerged from the world of threshold status to an overt posture which has yet to be fully defined. These measures include mainly the nondeployment of nuclear weapons and the assumption by. Traditional regional studies literature focuses on korean issues within the asia paci. India nuclear deal by george perkovich t their july summit meeting in washington, d. Treaty is the first effort at creating a nuclear weaponfree zone which asks the nuclear powers to refrain from using and threatening to use nuclear arms not only against parties to the treaty, but also anywhere within the zone. Carnegie nonproliferationsouth asia september 2005 faulty promises the u. The npt centric international nuclear order is based on legal, technical, political and normative pillars that have proven to be partially successful in achieving nuclear nonproliferation goals. A regional approach to nonproliferation in the south pacific the south pacific nuclearweaponfree zone foresees an iaea safeguards role by p.
Before the anticipated changeover to a majorityelected african national congressled government in the 1990s, the south african government dismantled all of its nuclear weapons, the first state in the world which. The essays in the volumeand the broader literature on nuclear proliferationinclude several explanations for states nuclear decisions. The effect of nuclear weapons on the behaviour of newly nuclear states, and the potential for future international crises, are of particular concern. Assessing progress on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament updated report card 202016.
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the nuclear renaissance in east and south asia, its potential safety and the security risks, against the backdrop of the experiences and hindsight of the european union eu experience in developing a functioning and effective nuclear non proliferation and nuclear security system. Fortunately, a new history of nuclear india and nuclear pakistan is emerging, a history by which scholars and policy. The ability of not just india, but also south korea, taiwan, south africa, argentina and brazil to make nuclear weapons may be traced to the atoms for peace program. Lessons from south asia bcsia studies in international security belfer center studies in international security hagerty, devin t.
Nuclear proliferation in south asia is in part a consequence of the security dilemma existing in the subcontinent. Nuclear proliferation in north east asia 23032017 the nuclear dimension of the crisis in the korean peninsula has been compounded since the end of the cold war, particularly since the north korean regime announced its withdrawal from the nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt in january 2003. The 1998 nuclear tests by india and pakistan dramatically worsened the secur ity situation for. From the 1960s to the 1990s, south africa pursued research into weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. India and pakistan were participating constructively in the geneva negotiations for a comp rehensive test ban treaty ctbt and were soon to acquiesce in the. A number of important strategic issues have been raised by these. Dprksyriairan nuclear nexus and strategic implications for israel and the rok by christina y. The complicated nuclear weapons geometry of asia thus extends from the subcontinent to the other side of the world. For example, president kennedys prediction that the world could see 15 to 25 new nuclear states by the 1970s has not yet come to pass. Nuclear power expansion and its safety and security risks.
Nuclear weapons proliferation and conflict in south asia. The spread of nuclear weapons to south asia offers an opportunity to investigate this crucial question. Each claims the status of a nuclear weapon state, yet the contours of that status are unclear. The united states should have an explicit strategy for each region of proliferation concern including east asia, south asia, and the middle east.
The world witnessed a major historical event in 1947 when subcontinent, which was governed as a one unit from khyber to burma since almost last one thousand years, partitioned by the ruling british empire resulting into two states namely india and. So too in the case of india and pakistan taking the nuclear path in may 1998. Fortunately, though, in recent decades bilateral and multilateral efforts to wean states intent on pursuing the nuclear weapons path, for instance iran, libya, south africa, brazil and argentina, off the path have. India announced its formal entry to the nuclear weapons club in. Does the possession of nuclear weapons enhance the security of.
Bush and indian prime minister manmohan singh announced potentially major departures in u. The third section examines the causes of nuclear proliferation. Nuclear strategy and regional stability in southern asia. Nuclear proliferation in south asia asian security studies. Pdf contrary to the common perception of an indiapakistan nuclear contest, china was the most important influence on india exercising its nuclear. If one accepts the pretension that indias peaceful nuclear explosion in 1974 had nothing.
Jan 06, 2018 the npt centric international nuclear order is based on legal, technical, political and normative pillars that have proven to be partially successful in achieving nuclear nonproliferation goals. Primary focus of this paper is to test the hypothesis that indiapakistan nuclear developments are posing challenge for the established norms of the nonproliferation treaty npt. It begins with a discussion on posture optimization theory, applying it to understand nuclear strategies of the three southern asian nuclear powers and seeks to understand the nature of strategic competition between them and its effect on their respective nuclear postures. As a region of burgeoning economic and political importance, south asia offers a crucial test of proliferations effects on the crisis behaviour of newly nuclear states. Japan, south korea, and egypt executive summary nuclear activity in north korea and iran presents numerous challenges to the global nonproliferation regime. Conference of the non proliferation of nuclear weapons npt. It has endorsed a united states proposal for a regional five power conference to consider non proliferation in south asia. Conference of the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons npt. Understanding the arms race in south asia carnegie. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india and pakistans nuclear trajectories available online.
The trump administration inherits a global nuclear nonproliferation regime that has been more effective and durable than many observers expected, but the regime may now be coming under stress. The southeast asia nuclear weaponfree zone treaty amitav. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the nuclear renaissance in east and south asia, its potential safety and the security risks, against the backdrop of the experiences and hindsight of the european union eu experience in developing a functioning and effective nuclear non. Bush and indian prime minister manmohan singh announced potentially major departures in. Not only indiapakistan is two different identities, but also nuclear.
Carnegie nonproliferationsouth asia september 2005 faulty. South africa and weapons of mass destruction wikipedia. Avoiding worstcase outcomes and the editor of six books on countries and regions of proliferation. Background the idea of a nuclear weaponfree zone in southeast asia was first mooted in the early. The trump administration inherits a global nuclear non proliferation regime that has been more effective and durable than many observers expected, but the regime may now be coming under stress. The southeast asia nuclear weaponfree zone treaty amitav acharya. The strategic landscape of south asia changed dramatically in 1998. The implications of south asias nuclear tests for the non.
Lessons from south asia bcsia studies in international security belfer center studies in international security. The unitar hiroshima training programme on nuclear disarmament and non proliferation for south east asia, was delivered in hiroshima between 8 and 12 june 2015, in close collaboration with the. Unitar training programme on nuclear disarmament and non. Horizontal proliferation refers to nationstates or nonstate entities that do not have, but are acquiring, nuclear weapons or developing the capability and materials for producing them.
House of representatives encourages steps to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons to the western pacific there is a case to be made for taking such a step. Prevention of the proliferation and use of nuclear weapons is urgently important to public health. In its draft of the 20 national defense authorization act, the u. Papadimitropoulos the first regional approach to nonproliferation was achieved well before any other efforts were made towards the establishment of a worldwide nonproliferation. The first nuclear learning coursenuclear south asia. The north korean nuclear weapons program could be the match that ignites a chain reaction of nuclear proliferation that shatters the nonproliferation regime and increases tensions exponentially in asia. Nuke proliferation in east asia affects international security. An increase in nuclear weapons in asia could motivate south korea and taiwan to once again pursue their own ambitions of attaining nuclear power81. The white paper stated that, india flagrantly carried out nuclear tests, that pakistan then followed suit, and that these nuclear tests have produced grave consequences on peace and stability in the south asian region and the rest of the world.
Nonproliferation challenges facing the trump administration. And so what i thought id do today was talk aboutgive an overview of nuclear proliferation and the consequences of proliferation in south asia, between india and pakistan, which isas aaron mentionedan active and ongoing conflict where the threat of conventional war is persistent. The unitar hiroshima training programme on nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation for south east asia, was delivered in hiroshima between 8 and 12 june 2015, in close collaboration with the. Nuclear weapons pose a particularly destructive threat. Does the proliferation of nuclear weapons cause ongoing conflicts to diminish or to intensify. Nuclear proliferation in north east asia think tank.
Nuclear doctrines in south asia 4 south asian strategic stability unit nuclear pessimists, however, has tended to neglect the critical role that nuclear doctrines of the emerging nuclear weapon states might play in either causing deterrence failure or ensuring its robustness. It has repeatedly proposed a nuclear free zone in south asia and has proclaimed its willingness to engage in nuclear disarmament and to sign the non proliferation treaty if india would do so. The nuclear weapon archive account of south africa. Nuclear proliferation in south asia asian security. The risk report, wisconsin project on nuclear arms control, 1996. Three new nuclear states have emerged since 1975south africa, pakistan, and. Fortunately, a new history of nuclear india and nuclear pakistan is emerging, a history by which scholars and policy makers alike can judge whether the predictions of the deterrence optimists or the organizational pessimists have been borne out. South asia who promoted nuclear weapons in the two countries with the promise of. Thus, this book provides both new insights into the domestic politics behind specific nuclear policy choices in south asia, a critique of narrow realist views of nuclear proliferation, and the. This report, the ninth to be submitted pursuant to section 620fc of the foreign assistance act of 1961, as amended, provides an update on nonproliferation efforts in south asia, including efforts taken by the united states to achieve a regional agreement on nuclear nonproliferation, and a comprehensive list of the obstacles to concluding such an agreement. It has repeatedly proposed a nuclear free zone in south asia and has proclaimed its willingness to engage in nuclear disarmament and to sign the nonproliferation treaty if india would do so. Trendsandpotential consequences michael krepon1 t o. Addressing nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament.
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